OVER 46.75 · EDGE loss. The full grades are below.
The verdict
SAT, OCT 17 · FINAL · WALLACE WADE STADIUM
North Carolina3-229%
Duke4-171%
UNCNATL RANKDUKE
95th
Model Overall
49th
90th
Model Offense
16th
97th
Model Defense
102nd
-6.0
Pace
-0.0
28%
Returning PPA
17%
Color marks the better value in each row.
Open total54.5
Model total50.5
OVER 46.75 · EDGE LOSS
Market cadence
Line movement
Latest: North Carolina +3.0 · No signal
◆Edge
▲Lean
○No signal
Sat, Oct 17, 11:04:55 AM ET
North Carolina line
+3.0
Producer tier
No signal
Fri, Sep 4, 5:03:41 PM ET; North Carolina line +4.5; producer tier No signal
Tue, Oct 13, 11:03:28 AM ET; North Carolina line +3.0; producer tier No signal
Wed, Oct 14, 11:03:17 AM ET; North Carolina line +3.25; producer tier No signal
Thu, Oct 15, 11:02:56 AM ET; North Carolina line +3.0; producer tier No signal
Fri, Oct 16, 11:03:04 AM ET; North Carolina line +3.0; producer tier No signal
Sat, Oct 17, 11:04:55 AM ET; North Carolina line +3.0; producer tier No signal
RATINGS AS OF: UNC wk 7 · DUKE wk 7
Model margin
Duke by 8.13
Opening line
North Carolina +4.5
Latest line
North Carolina +3
Close total
46.8
Graded model opinions
Every published Lean and Edge grades against its locked selected line. ATS and total results remain independent.
UNC24
FINALWallace Wade Stadium
DUKE20
WinDukeWIN MISS
TotalOVER 46.75 · EDGEEDGE MISS
Where these numbers come from
One model scores every FBS game: a win probability, a projected margin, and a projected total, built from as-of team ratings (offense, defense, pace, returning production, recruiting). Ratings on this page are snapshots from the week shown, with zero future information baked in.
Leans and Edges use the exact lines published before kickoff. Every published pick is graded.
