FLORIDA STATE +19.75 · EDGE win; OVER 53.5 · EDGE win. The full grades are below.
The verdict
SAT, OCT 17 · FINAL · HARD ROCK STADIUM
Florida State3-37%
Miami5-093%
FSUNATL RANKMIA
47th
Model Overall
3rd
29th
Model Offense
13th
68th
Model Defense
2nd
-1.5
Pace
-1.8
40%
Returning PPA
37%
Color marks the better value in each row.
Open total53.5
Model total56.5
FLORIDA STATE +19.75 · EDGE WINOVER 53.5 · EDGE WIN
Market cadence
Line movement
Latest: Florida State +19.75 · EDGE
◆Edge
▲Lean
○No signal
Sat, Oct 17, 11:04:55 AM ET
Florida State line
+19.75
Producer tier
EDGE
Fri, Sep 4, 5:03:41 PM ET; Florida State line +16.5; producer tier No signal
Tue, Oct 13, 11:03:28 AM ET; Florida State line +21.0; producer tier No signal
Wed, Oct 14, 11:03:17 AM ET; Florida State line +21.5; producer tier No signal
Thu, Oct 15, 11:02:56 AM ET; Florida State line +21.5; producer tier No signal
Fri, Oct 16, 11:03:04 AM ET; Florida State line +21.5; producer tier No signal
Sat, Oct 17, 11:04:55 AM ET; Florida State line +19.75; producer tier EDGE
RATINGS AS OF: FSU wk 7 · MIA wk 7
Model margin
Miami by 16.86
Opening line
Florida State +16.5
Latest line
Florida State +20.25
Close total
57.0
Graded model opinions
Every published Lean and Edge grades against its locked selected line. ATS and total results remain independent.
FSU35
FINALHard Rock Stadium
MIA43
WinMiamiWIN HIT
ATSFLORIDA STATE +19.75 · EDGEEDGE HIT
TotalOVER 53.5 · EDGEEDGE HIT
Where these numbers come from
One model scores every FBS game: a win probability, a projected margin, and a projected total, built from as-of team ratings (offense, defense, pace, returning production, recruiting). Ratings on this page are snapshots from the week shown, with zero future information baked in.
Leans and Edges use the exact lines published before kickoff. Every published pick is graded.
