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WK 4 · 2026FINALOPENER CAPTURED TUE 11:02 AM ET

Week 4 · 2026 season

Wake Forest @ AP rank 16Louisville

The final score and published grades are below.

The verdict

SAT, SEP 26 · FINAL · L&N FEDERAL CREDIT UNION STADIUM
Wake Forest2-121%
Louisville2-179%
WAKENATL RANKLOU
32nd
Model Overall
26th
37th
Model Offense
38th
38th
Model Defense
31st
-1.1
Pace
-3.2
14%
Returning PPA
35%

Color marks the better value in each row.

Open total58.3
Model total56.8

Market cadence

Line movement

Latest: Wake Forest +11.5 · No signal

+11+12+13+14Open11:02 AMTue11:02 AMWed11:02 AMThu11:02 AMFri11:02 AMSat11:04 AM
  • Edge
  • Lean
  • No signal

Sat, Sep 26, 11:04:31 AM ET

Wake Forest line
+11.5
Producer tier
No signal
  • Tue, Sep 22, 11:02:45 AM ET; Wake Forest line +13.0; producer tier No signal
  • Tue, Sep 22, 11:02:45 AM ET; Wake Forest line +12.5; producer tier No signal
  • Wed, Sep 23, 11:02:22 AM ET; Wake Forest line +12.5; producer tier No signal
  • Thu, Sep 24, 11:02:22 AM ET; Wake Forest line +13.25; producer tier No signal
  • Fri, Sep 25, 11:02:48 AM ET; Wake Forest line +13.5; producer tier No signal
  • Sat, Sep 26, 11:04:31 AM ET; Wake Forest line +11.5; producer tier No signal

RATINGS AS OF: WAKE wk 4 · LOU wk 4

Model margin
Louisville by 11.53
Opening line
Wake Forest +13
Latest line
Wake Forest +11.25
Close total
57.5

Graded model opinions

Every published Lean and Edge grades against its locked selected line. ATS and total results remain independent.

WAKE30
FINALL&N Federal Credit Union Stadium
LOU27
  • WinLouisvilleWIN MISS
Where these numbers come from

One model scores every FBS game: a win probability, a projected margin, and a projected total, built from as-of team ratings (offense, defense, pace, returning production, recruiting). Ratings on this page are snapshots from the week shown, with zero future information baked in.

Leans and Edges use the exact lines published before kickoff. Every published pick is graded.

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