SMU +1.5 · EDGE loss; UNDER 58.5 · EDGE loss. The full grades are below.
The verdict
SAT, SEP 19 · FINAL · L&N FEDERAL CREDIT UNION STADIUM
SMU2-059%
Louisville1-141%
SMUNATL RANKLOU
11th
Model Overall
26th
7th
Model Offense
38th
27th
Model Defense
31st
-1.3
Pace
-3.2
57%
Returning PPA
35%
Color marks the better value in each row.
Open total56.5
Model total54.1
SMU +1.5 · EDGE LOSSUNDER 58.5 · EDGE LOSS
Market cadence
Line movement
Latest: SMU +1.75 · No signal
◆Edge
▲Lean
○No signal
Sat, Sep 19, 11:03:28 AM ET
SMU line
+1.75
Producer tier
No signal
Fri, Sep 4, 5:03:41 PM ET; SMU line +1.5; producer tier No signal
Tue, Sep 15, 11:02:28 AM ET; SMU line +1.5; producer tier EDGE
Wed, Sep 16, 11:02:15 AM ET; SMU line +1.25; producer tier EDGE
Thu, Sep 17, 11:02:43 AM ET; SMU line +1.25; producer tier EDGE
Fri, Sep 18, 11:02:12 AM ET; SMU line +1.5; producer tier EDGE
Sat, Sep 19, 11:03:28 AM ET; SMU line +1.75; producer tier No signal
RATINGS AS OF: SMU wk 3 · LOU wk 3
Model margin
SMU by 1.26
Opening line
SMU +1.5
Latest line
SMU +3
Close total
57.5
Graded model opinions
Every published Lean and Edge grades against its locked selected line. ATS and total results remain independent.
SMU31
FINALL&N Federal Credit Union Stadium
LOU41
WinSMUWIN MISS
ATSSMU +1.5 · EDGEEDGE MISS
TotalUNDER 58.5 · EDGEEDGE MISS
Where these numbers come from
One model scores every FBS game: a win probability, a projected margin, and a projected total, built from as-of team ratings (offense, defense, pace, returning production, recruiting). Ratings on this page are snapshots from the week shown, with zero future information baked in.
Leans and Edges use the exact lines published before kickoff. Every published pick is graded.
