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WK 3 · 2026FINALOPENER CAPTURED MON 8:35 AM ET

Week 3 · 2026 season

Northern Illinois @ Arizona

OVER 50.25 · EDGE win. The full grades are below.

The verdict

SAT, SEP 19 · FINAL · ARIZONA STADIUM
Northern Illinois0-22%
Arizona1-198%
NIUNATL RANKARIZ
134th
Model Overall
23rd
117th
Model Offense
42nd
135th
Model Defense
18th
-4.1
Pace
1.0
44%
Returning PPA
65%

Color marks the better value in each row.

Open total49.8
Model total54.0
OVER 50.25 · EDGE WIN

Market cadence

Line movement

Latest: Northern Illinois +33.75 · No signal

+33+34+35+36Open8:35 AMTue11:02 AMWed11:02 AMThu11:02 AMFri11:02 AMSat11:03 AM
  • Edge
  • Lean
  • No signal

Sat, Sep 19, 11:03:28 AM ET

Northern Illinois line
+33.75
Producer tier
No signal
  • Mon, Sep 14, 8:35:15 AM ET; Northern Illinois line +35.0; producer tier No signal
  • Tue, Sep 15, 11:02:28 AM ET; Northern Illinois line +34.5; producer tier No signal
  • Wed, Sep 16, 11:02:15 AM ET; Northern Illinois line +34.5; producer tier No signal
  • Thu, Sep 17, 11:02:43 AM ET; Northern Illinois line +34.5; producer tier No signal
  • Fri, Sep 18, 11:02:12 AM ET; Northern Illinois line +33.75; producer tier No signal
  • Sat, Sep 19, 11:03:28 AM ET; Northern Illinois line +33.75; producer tier No signal

RATINGS AS OF: NIU wk 3 · ARIZ wk 3

Model margin
Arizona by 34.70
Opening line
Northern Illinois +35
Latest line
Northern Illinois +34.5
Close total
50.3

Graded model opinions

Every published Lean and Edge grades against its locked selected line. ATS and total results remain independent.

NIU17
FINALArizona Stadium
ARIZ42
  • WinArizonaWIN HIT
  • TotalOVER 50.25 · EDGEEDGE HIT
Where these numbers come from

One model scores every FBS game: a win probability, a projected margin, and a projected total, built from as-of team ratings (offense, defense, pace, returning production, recruiting). Ratings on this page are snapshots from the week shown, with zero future information baked in.

Leans and Edges use the exact lines published before kickoff. Every published pick is graded.

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