TENNESSEE +8.75 · EDGE win; OVER 56.5 · EDGE loss. The full grades are below.
The verdict
SAT, OCT 17 · FINAL · NEYLAND STADIUM
Alabama5-161%
Tennessee5-139%
ALANATL RANKTENN
21st
Model Overall
29th
44th
Model Offense
12th
15th
Model Defense
61st
-3.7
Pace
1.0
26%
Returning PPA
35%
Color marks the better value in each row.
Open total56.5
Model total53.2
TENNESSEE +8.75 · EDGE WINOVER 56.5 · EDGE LOSS
Market cadence
Line movement
Latest: Alabama -7.75 · No signal
◆Edge
▲Lean
○No signal
Sat, Oct 17, 11:04:55 AM ET
Alabama line
-7.75
Producer tier
No signal
Fri, Sep 4, 5:03:41 PM ET; Alabama line -1.5; producer tier No signal
Tue, Oct 13, 11:03:28 AM ET; Alabama line -8.5; producer tier EDGE
Wed, Oct 14, 11:03:17 AM ET; Alabama line -8.75; producer tier EDGE
Thu, Oct 15, 11:02:56 AM ET; Alabama line -7.5; producer tier No signal
Fri, Oct 16, 11:03:04 AM ET; Alabama line -7.5; producer tier No signal
Sat, Oct 17, 11:04:55 AM ET; Alabama line -7.75; producer tier No signal
RATINGS AS OF: ALA wk 7 · TENN wk 7
Model margin
Alabama by 4.34
Opening line
Alabama -1.5
Latest line
Alabama -7.75
Close total
50.8
Graded model opinions
Every published Lean and Edge grades against its locked selected line. ATS and total results remain independent.
ALA10
FINALNeyland Stadium
TENN26
WinAlabamaWIN MISS
ATSTENNESSEE +8.75 · EDGEEDGE HIT
TotalOVER 56.5 · EDGEEDGE MISS
Where these numbers come from
One model scores every FBS game: a win probability, a projected margin, and a projected total, built from as-of team ratings (offense, defense, pace, returning production, recruiting). Ratings on this page are snapshots from the week shown, with zero future information baked in.
Leans and Edges use the exact lines published before kickoff. Every published pick is graded.
