TEXAS -5.5 · EDGE loss; OVER 54.75 · EDGE loss. The full grades are below.
The verdict
SAT, SEP 26 · FINAL · NEYLAND STADIUM
Texas3-064%
Tennessee3-036%
TEXNATL RANKTENN
15th
Model Overall
29th
11th
Model Offense
12th
33rd
Model Defense
61st
-2.8
Pace
1.0
72%
Returning PPA
35%
Color marks the better value in each row.
Open total56.5
Model total58.9
TEXAS -5.5 · EDGE LOSSOVER 54.75 · EDGE LOSS
Market cadence
Line movement
Latest: Texas -5.5 · EDGE
◆Edge
▲Lean
○No signal
Sat, Sep 26, 11:04:31 AM ET
Texas line
-5.5
Producer tier
EDGE
Fri, Sep 4, 5:03:41 PM ET; Texas line -6.5; producer tier No signal
Tue, Sep 22, 11:02:45 AM ET; Texas line -5.5; producer tier EDGE
Wed, Sep 23, 11:02:22 AM ET; Texas line -4.5; producer tier No signal
Thu, Sep 24, 11:02:22 AM ET; Texas line -4.0; producer tier No signal
Fri, Sep 25, 11:02:48 AM ET; Texas line -4.75; producer tier No signal
Sat, Sep 26, 11:04:31 AM ET; Texas line -5.5; producer tier EDGE
RATINGS AS OF: TEX wk 4 · TENN wk 4
Model margin
Texas by 7.97
Opening line
Texas -6.5
Latest line
Texas -5.5
Close total
54.5
Graded model opinions
Every published Lean and Edge grades against its locked selected line. ATS and total results remain independent.
TEX20
FINALNeyland Stadium
TENN17
WinTexasWIN HIT
ATSTEXAS -5.5 · EDGEEDGE MISS
TotalOVER 54.75 · EDGEEDGE MISS
Where these numbers come from
One model scores every FBS game: a win probability, a projected margin, and a projected total, built from as-of team ratings (offense, defense, pace, returning production, recruiting). Ratings on this page are snapshots from the week shown, with zero future information baked in.
Leans and Edges use the exact lines published before kickoff. Every published pick is graded.
