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WK 3 · 2026FINALOPENER CAPTURED MON 8:35 AM ET

Week 3 · 2026 season

NC State @ Vanderbilt

OVER 50.5 · EDGE win. The full grades are below.

The verdict

SAT, SEP 19 · FINAL · FIRSTBANK STADIUM
NC State1-131%
Vanderbilt2-069%
NCSUNATL RANKVAN
43rd
Model Overall
7th
35th
Model Offense
1st
49th
Model Defense
71st
-4.5
Pace
-5.7
60%
Returning PPA
35%

Color marks the better value in each row.

Open total53.5
Model total54.4
OVER 50.5 · EDGE WIN

Market cadence

Line movement

Latest: NC State +3.25 · No signal

+2+3+4+5Open8:35 AMTue11:02 AMWed11:02 AMThu11:02 AMFri11:02 AMSat11:03 AM
  • Edge
  • Lean
  • No signal

Sat, Sep 19, 11:03:28 AM ET

NC State line
+3.25
Producer tier
No signal
  • Mon, Sep 14, 8:35:15 AM ET; NC State line +4.0; producer tier No signal
  • Tue, Sep 15, 11:02:28 AM ET; NC State line +3.25; producer tier No signal
  • Wed, Sep 16, 11:02:15 AM ET; NC State line +3.5; producer tier No signal
  • Thu, Sep 17, 11:02:43 AM ET; NC State line +3.25; producer tier No signal
  • Fri, Sep 18, 11:02:12 AM ET; NC State line +3.0; producer tier No signal
  • Sat, Sep 19, 11:03:28 AM ET; NC State line +3.25; producer tier No signal

RATINGS AS OF: NCSU wk 3 · VAN wk 3

Model margin
Vanderbilt by 8.82
Opening line
NC State +4
Latest line
NC State +3
Close total
50.5

Graded model opinions

Every published Lean and Edge grades against its locked selected line. ATS and total results remain independent.

NCSU31
FINALFirstBank Stadium
VAN35
  • WinVanderbiltWIN HIT
  • TotalOVER 50.5 · EDGEEDGE HIT
Where these numbers come from

One model scores every FBS game: a win probability, a projected margin, and a projected total, built from as-of team ratings (offense, defense, pace, returning production, recruiting). Ratings on this page are snapshots from the week shown, with zero future information baked in.

Leans and Edges use the exact lines published before kickoff. Every published pick is graded.

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