SOUTH CAROLINA -3.5 · LEAN loss; OVER 54.5 · EDGE win. The full grades are below.
The verdict
SAT, SEP 19 · FINAL · WILLIAMS-BRICE STADIUM
Mississippi State2-022%
South Carolina2-078%
MSSTNATL RANKSC
72nd
Model Overall
28th
55th
Model Offense
65th
80th
Model Defense
17th
1.9
Pace
-3.7
34%
Returning PPA
69%
Color marks the better value in each row.
Open total54.5
Model total57.1
SOUTH CAROLINA -3.5 · LEAN LOSSOVER 54.5 · EDGE WIN
Market cadence
Line movement
Latest: Mississippi State +3.5 · LEAN
◆Edge
▲Lean
○No signal
Sat, Sep 19, 11:03:28 AM ET
Mississippi State line
+3.5
Producer tier
LEAN
Thu, Sep 10, 11:02:28 AM ET; Mississippi State line +7.5; producer tier No signal
Tue, Sep 15, 11:02:28 AM ET; Mississippi State line +3.75; producer tier No signal
Wed, Sep 16, 11:02:15 AM ET; Mississippi State line +3.75; producer tier No signal
Thu, Sep 17, 11:02:43 AM ET; Mississippi State line +4.0; producer tier No signal
Fri, Sep 18, 11:02:12 AM ET; Mississippi State line +3.75; producer tier No signal
Sat, Sep 19, 11:03:28 AM ET; Mississippi State line +3.5; producer tier LEAN
RATINGS AS OF: MSST wk 3 · SC wk 3
Model margin
South Carolina by 12.66
Opening line
Mississippi State +7.5
Latest line
Mississippi State +3
Close total
59.3
Graded model opinions
Every published Lean and Edge grades against its locked selected line. ATS and total results remain independent.
MSST41
FINALWilliams-Brice Stadium
SC34
WinSouth CarolinaWIN MISS
ATSSOUTH CAROLINA -3.5 · LEANLEAN MISS
TotalOVER 54.5 · EDGEEDGE HIT
Where these numbers come from
One model scores every FBS game: a win probability, a projected margin, and a projected total, built from as-of team ratings (offense, defense, pace, returning production, recruiting). Ratings on this page are snapshots from the week shown, with zero future information baked in.
Leans and Edges use the exact lines published before kickoff. Every published pick is graded.
