FLORIDA STATE +17.5 · EDGE win. The full grades are below.
The verdict
SAT, SEP 19 · FINAL · BRYANT-DENNY STADIUM
Florida State1-110%
Alabama2-090%
FSUNATL RANKALA
47th
Model Overall
21st
29th
Model Offense
44th
68th
Model Defense
15th
-1.5
Pace
-3.7
40%
Returning PPA
26%
Color marks the better value in each row.
Open total52.5
Model total50.3
FLORIDA STATE +17.5 · EDGE WIN
Market cadence
Line movement
Latest: Florida State +19.5 · No signal
◆Edge
▲Lean
○No signal
Sat, Sep 19, 11:03:28 AM ET
Florida State line
+19.5
Producer tier
No signal
Fri, Sep 4, 5:03:41 PM ET; Florida State line +15.5; producer tier No signal
Tue, Sep 15, 11:02:28 AM ET; Florida State line +19.5; producer tier No signal
Wed, Sep 16, 11:02:15 AM ET; Florida State line +19.75; producer tier No signal
Thu, Sep 17, 11:02:43 AM ET; Florida State line +19.5; producer tier No signal
Fri, Sep 18, 11:02:12 AM ET; Florida State line +19.75; producer tier No signal
Sat, Sep 19, 11:03:28 AM ET; Florida State line +19.5; producer tier No signal
RATINGS AS OF: FSU wk 3 · ALA wk 3
Model margin
Alabama by 15.24
Opening line
Florida State +15.5
Latest line
Florida State +18.5
Close total
50.3
Graded model opinions
Every published Lean and Edge grades against its locked selected line. ATS and total results remain independent.
FSU36
FINALBryant-Denny Stadium
ALA50
WinAlabamaWIN HIT
ATSFLORIDA STATE +17.5 · EDGEEDGE HIT
Where these numbers come from
One model scores every FBS game: a win probability, a projected margin, and a projected total, built from as-of team ratings (offense, defense, pace, returning production, recruiting). Ratings on this page are snapshots from the week shown, with zero future information baked in.
Leans and Edges use the exact lines published before kickoff. Every published pick is graded.
