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WK 10 · 2025FINALOPENER CAPTURED WED 3:46 PM ET

Week 10 · 2025 season

New Mexico State @ Western Kentucky

The UNDER 54.0 cashed. The full grade is below.

The verdict

SAT, NOV 1 · FINAL · HOUCHENS INDUSTRIES-L.T. SMITH STADIUM
New Mexico State4-829%
Western Kentucky9-471%
NMSUNATL RANKWKU
-0.1no rank
Overall rating
no rank0.1
-0.0no rank
Offense rating
no rank0.1
-0.0no rank
Defense rating
no rank-0.0
1.2no rank
Pace
no rank-0.8
56%no rank
Returning PPA
no rank33%
#116116th
Power rank
94th#94
#126126th
Recruiting rank
96th#96

Cell color follows national rank:top 4091st or worse.

Open total54.0
Model total50.8
EDGE UNDER 54.0 · HIT

RATINGS AS OF: NMSU wk 17 · WKU wk 17 · RANKS PRINTED IN EVERY TINTED CELL

Model margin (home)
+5.0
Open spread
-9.5
Close spread
-7.5
Close total
53.5

Graded, all four markets

Every market grades against the close. The edge is the only one we badge as a pick; the other three ride along for calibration.

NMSU16
FINALHouchens Industries-L.T. Smith Stadium
WKU35
  • WinWestern KentuckyWIN HIT
  • ATSNew Mexico StateATS MISS
  • TotalsUNDER 53.5TOTAL HIT
  • EdgeUNDER 54.0EDGE HIT
Where these numbers come from

One model scores every FBS game: a win probability, a projected margin, and a projected total, built from as-of team ratings (offense, defense, pace, returning production, recruiting). Ratings on this page are snapshots from the week shown, with zero future information baked in.

The totals edge compares the model's total to the opening number. A gap of 3 or more points earns the badge, and it's the only pick on the card. Win and spread numbers are predictions we publish for the record, unbadged. The ATS lean stays tracked but unbadged: it has never beaten the closing line, even though the model beats the opener by about half a point of line value.

All four markets grade against the closing line once the game goes final. The full ledger lives on the track record.

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