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WK 10 · 2025FINALOPENER CAPTURED WED 3:46 PM ET

Week 10 · 2025 season

UAB @ UConn

The UNDER 64.3 cashed. The full grade is below.

The verdict

SAT, NOV 1 · FINAL · PRATT & WHITNEY STADIUM
UAB4-829%
UConn9-471%
UABNATL RANKCONN
-0.1no rank
Overall rating
no rank0.1
0.1no rank
Offense rating
no rank0.2
-0.2no rank
Defense rating
no rank-0.1
0.0no rank
Pace
no rank-0.9
73%no rank
Returning PPA
no rank68%
#119119th
Power rank
63rd#63
#125125th
Recruiting rank
114th#114

Cell color follows national rank:top 4091st or worse.

Open total64.3
Model total56.4
EDGE UNDER 64.3 · HIT

RATINGS AS OF: UAB wk 17 · CONN wk 17 · RANKS PRINTED IN EVERY TINTED CELL

Model margin (home)
+14.4
Open spread
-11.5
Close spread
-10.5
Close total
61.5

Graded, all four markets

Every market grades against the close. The edge is the only one we badge as a pick; the other three ride along for calibration.

UAB19
FINALPratt & Whitney Stadium
CONN38
  • WinUConnWIN HIT
  • ATSUConnATS HIT
  • TotalsUNDER 61.5TOTAL HIT
  • EdgeUNDER 64.3EDGE HIT
Where these numbers come from

One model scores every FBS game: a win probability, a projected margin, and a projected total, built from as-of team ratings (offense, defense, pace, returning production, recruiting). Ratings on this page are snapshots from the week shown, with zero future information baked in.

The totals edge compares the model's total to the opening number. A gap of 3 or more points earns the badge, and it's the only pick on the card. Win and spread numbers are predictions we publish for the record, unbadged. The ATS lean stays tracked but unbadged: it has never beaten the closing line, even though the model beats the opener by about half a point of line value.

All four markets grade against the closing line once the game goes final. The full ledger lives on the track record.

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