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WK 10 · 2025FINALOPENER CAPTURED WED 3:46 PM ET

Week 10 · 2025 season

UCF @ Baylor

The UNDER 60.5 cashed. The full grade is below.

The verdict

SAT, NOV 1 · FINAL · MCLANE STADIUM
UCF5-745%
Baylor5-755%
UCFNATL RANKBAY
0.1no rank
Overall rating
no rank0.2
0.1no rank
Offense rating
no rank0.2
0.0no rank
Defense rating
no rank-0.0
-2.4no rank
Pace
no rank5.8
31%no rank
Returning PPA
no rank83%
#7878th
Power rank
53rd#53
#7979th
Recruiting rank
36th#36

Cell color follows national rank:top 4091st or worse.

Open total60.5
Model total56.6
EDGE UNDER 60.5 · HIT

RATINGS AS OF: UCF wk 17 · BAY wk 17 · RANKS PRINTED IN EVERY TINTED CELL

Model margin (home)
+4.3
Open spread
-4.5
Close spread
-3.0
Close total
58.5

Graded, all four markets

Every market grades against the close. The edge is the only one we badge as a pick; the other three ride along for calibration.

UCF3
FINALMcLane Stadium
BAY30
  • WinBaylorWIN HIT
  • ATSBaylorATS HIT
  • TotalsUNDER 58.5TOTAL HIT
  • EdgeUNDER 60.5EDGE HIT
Where these numbers come from

One model scores every FBS game: a win probability, a projected margin, and a projected total, built from as-of team ratings (offense, defense, pace, returning production, recruiting). Ratings on this page are snapshots from the week shown, with zero future information baked in.

The totals edge compares the model's total to the opening number. A gap of 3 or more points earns the badge, and it's the only pick on the card. Win and spread numbers are predictions we publish for the record, unbadged. The ATS lean stays tracked but unbadged: it has never beaten the closing line, even though the model beats the opener by about half a point of line value.

All four markets grade against the closing line once the game goes final. The full ledger lives on the track record.

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