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WK 10 · 2025FINALOPENER CAPTURED WED 3:46 PM ET

Week 10 · 2025 season

Rutgers @ Illinois

The UNDER 63.0 cashed. The full grade is below.

The verdict

SAT, NOV 1 · FINAL · MEMORIAL STADIUM (CHAMPAIGN, IL)
Rutgers5-733%
Illinois9-467%
RUTGNATL RANKILL
0.1no rank
Overall rating
no rank0.2
0.2no rank
Offense rating
no rank0.1
-0.1no rank
Defense rating
no rank0.0
1.5no rank
Pace
no rank-5.6
67%no rank
Returning PPA
no rank53%
#9393rd
Power rank
56th#56
#3333rd
Recruiting rank
45th#45

Cell color follows national rank:top 4091st or worse.

Open total63.0
Model total58.9
EDGE UNDER 63.0 · HIT

RATINGS AS OF: RUTG wk 17 · ILL wk 17 · RANKS PRINTED IN EVERY TINTED CELL

Model margin (home)
+10.2
Open spread
-13.0
Close spread
-13.0
Close total
63.5

Graded, all four markets

Every market grades against the close. The edge is the only one we badge as a pick; the other three ride along for calibration.

RUTG13
FINALMemorial Stadium (Champaign, IL)
ILL35
  • WinIllinoisWIN HIT
  • ATSRutgersATS MISS
  • TotalsUNDER 63.5TOTAL HIT
  • EdgeUNDER 63.0EDGE HIT
Where these numbers come from

One model scores every FBS game: a win probability, a projected margin, and a projected total, built from as-of team ratings (offense, defense, pace, returning production, recruiting). Ratings on this page are snapshots from the week shown, with zero future information baked in.

The totals edge compares the model's total to the opening number. A gap of 3 or more points earns the badge, and it's the only pick on the card. Win and spread numbers are predictions we publish for the record, unbadged. The ATS lean stays tracked but unbadged: it has never beaten the closing line, even though the model beats the opener by about half a point of line value.

All four markets grade against the closing line once the game goes final. The full ledger lives on the track record.

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